Equality of responsibility: Cultural conditions for Western survival

Multiplying populations and communications weave an increasingly dense web of mutual interdependence, factual and psychological, and therewith multiple demands, often unwelcome, often conflicting, on the individuals whom they support. The responsibility which this imposes on individuals, and which Western societies must develop and enforce if they are to survive, is inconsistent with the concept of unqualified personal autonomy which has emerged, partly as a protest against it.     

Dynamics of Beef Supply in the Presence of Cointegration: A New Test of the Backward-Bending Hypothesis

Following a general-to-specific strategy of model development, we develop error-correction equations for fed beef supply and feeder cattle demand. Starting with a theoretically acceptable set of variables, preliminary tests for unit roots and cointegrating vectors show stationary quantity variables and cointegrated prices. Simplification of the lag structure leads to equations with considerably richer dynamics than in previous studies. The final model passes several misspecification tests, is robust when estimated on subsamples of data, and makes more accurate out-of-sample forecasts than other models. In beef supply, the estimated error-correction model decomposes the backward-bending supply hypothesis into negative short-run and positive long-run supply elasticities at the monthly frequency.     

The role of food service in tourist satisfaction

The paper is based on empirical investigation carried out amongst a 341-sample population visiting the Black Sea resorts of Romania in August 1997. The purpose of the study was to investigate the role and importance of food service in tourist satisfaction and to note any differences in satisfaction levels between regional groups. Analysis of the findings revealed that significant differences existed between three tourist groups’ satisfaction perceptions of value for money, quality of food, number of dishes, standard of food service, variety of dishes, presentation of food and speed of service in general; and of bread, coffee, meat and soup in particular. Overall results further indicated that quality of food, value for money, variety of dishes, attractiveness of surroundings and presentation of food were the attributes that most affected the overall food service experience in Romania. The paper concludes that food service is an important contributor to tourist satisfaction and that there are significant differences in satisfaction levels with food service between eastern and western European, and Romanian tourists.     

Estimating the Impact of Anti-dumping and Anti-cartel Actions Using Intervention Analysis

Intervention analysis is proposed as a method for estimating the effects of anti-dumping actions in the presence of a domestic cartel. Data requirements and modelling effort compare favourably with traditional structural model approaches. The method is applied to an anti-dumping action brought to the European Commission and in which the European producers of the product were fined after an anti-cartel action by the Commission covering an overlapping period. Interven tion analysis is applied to distinguish the effects of the anti-dumping action from those of changes in cartel behaviour     

Efficient Timing of Retirement

This study introduces a retirement decision into the classic Merton model. A familiar result is that you should retire if and when the marginal utility of another year's wages is equal to the disutility of work. A new result is that at the point of retirement your exposure to risky assets should not jump. Under power utility and constant time preference, the retirement timing problem has a closed form solution; the nine inputs to the formula in question give rise to nine comparative-static results on retirement timing. Further specialization of preferences, to log consumption utility and zero time preference, reduces the required number of inputs to four. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: E21, G11, J26.     

THERE'S MANY A SLIP…

There has to be a General Election at some time in the next eighteen months. It has long been clear that the economy will not be in the best of shape in time for the election and that the best the Conservatives can hope for is a significant reduction in inflation and interest rates together with modest output growth. Our October forecast suggested that this combination was feasible and that the government would be able to go to the country with base rates of 12 per cent, retail price inflation at half its present level and output growing at a rate of 2per cent after a relatively short and shallow recession. It may turn out that this is an overly optimistic central forecast and in this Forecast Release we examine some of the ways in which it could go wrong. In a worst possible scenario the government may have to face the electorate with the economy in recession, inflation high and interest rates still at or close to their present levels.